Once you've configured a Goal, you can analyze some summary information and statistics around its performance from the ClearBrain dashboard.

To access an individual Goal, simply click the "View" button on the respective Goal from the "Goals" tab in your dashboard and a side-pane with information on your selected Goal will open.

Goal Overview

At the top you will find an overview of your Goal. This includes:

  • Target Behavior: the action(s) you specified as the target behavior for this goal
  • Prediction Filter: the filters that define the sub-audience you configured this goal for
  • Tags: any tags you have associated with this Goal

Two Modes of Goal Analytics

There are two modes for any configured Goal: Historical Tracking and Predictive Forecasting

Immediately, any Goal you create will be able to be used for Historical Tracking. This means you can use the Goal to track how many users are performing the target behavior in past weeks and track historical conversions.

But ClearBrain enables you to not just track but also forecast future conversions. Our AI platform will spin up on Goal creation to build a predictive model based on users who convert in the past to determine who will convert towards your goal in the future. 

This process takes ~20-30 minutes, after which ClearBrain will assign each of your users a probability to convert in the future, and also forecast any audience's future conversion rate.

Note: Predictive Forecasting is only available for conversion events that have a minimum of 2 weeks of historical data

Goal Analytics

Once your Goal has transitioned to Predictive Forecasting mode, the Goal Analytics section will become visible. 

This allows you to visualize for your entire user base, what is their historical conversion rate by percentile, as well as their forecasted conversion rate (probability). The summary information includes:

  • Estimated Accuracy: the AUC metric specifying how accurate the predictive forecasting for this Goal is; a good measure is 70% - 90%; any forecast with < 50% accuracy is no better than random
  • Average Propensity: this is the average probability or forecasted conversion rate for your top 20% of users
  • Average Conversion Rate: this is the average historical conversion rate for your top 20% of users

Below the summary statistics is a distribution graph for all your users by their likelihood to convert. The x-axis is the percentile of users (0%-100%) and the y-axis represents the conversion rate last week (light blue line) and forecasted probability this week (dark blue line). 

Note: the proximity of the dark blue vs light blue lines represents the difference between historical vs forecasted conversion rates; the closer the two lines are in slope/shape, the more accurate of a forecast is assumed.

Recommended Audiences

Another benefit of Predictive Forecasting is that ClearBrain's AI can recommend specific audiences of users to analyze, based on their forecasted conversion rates towards your selected Goal.

Your goal will have a minimum of two recommended audiences:

  • High Efficiency: These are the users that ClearBrain's AI has determined have the highest likelihood to convert towards your specified goal, without any intervention or treatment. They are roughly based on the top 95% - 100% of your users by future propensity to convert.
  • High Incrementality: These are the users that ClearBrain's AI has determined have the highest likelihood to be influenced to convert, assuming an intervention or treatment. They comprise roughly the top 80% - 95% of your users by propensity to convert.
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